In the early hours of February 24 2022, standing on the freezing roof of a hotel in Kyiv, the idea that Russia would launch a full-scale assault on Ukraine, despite a troop buildup on the border, still seemed almost impossible to imagine.
Yes, Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin strongman, had developed a taste for wielding Russia’s hard power. Putin’s wars in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria, as well as military action in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, had delivered him success at a relatively low cost.
But invading the second biggest country in Europe, after Russia itself, would be a potentially catastrophic prospect which would, surely, give a cold strategist like Putin pause for thought.
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